Picking Up Girls and the Game of Asymmetric Returns


asymmetric returnsI’ve been relistening to Nassim Taleb’s wonderful book Fooled by Randomness, which is a probabalist’s dream read. And if there’s one thing that picking up girls turns you into, it’s a probabalist.

Reading it (or listening to it on audio, as I am), you see a great many parallels between stock trading and seduction. And you also come to understand why some men succeed at picking up lots of different pretty girls, and why most men never will.

In many things in life, but especially in trading and in pickup, there is what you’d call an asymmetric distribution of returns. And that means that by participating in trading for stocks or picking up girls or anything else with an asymmetric distribution, you’re opening yourself up to asymmetric returns.

But the mind does not take well naturally to asymmetric returns. It doesn’t grasp them. It isn’t built to work that way.

And the result of this is, an endless abundance of great returns for those few souls willing to go against the grain, fight the emotions that go with it, and chase down their asymmetric returns in spite of their struggling and fearful or frustrated brains... and an endless source of frustration and disappointment for the majority of souls who just go with the flow.


asymmetric returns

To introduce the concept of asymmetric returns, Taleb gives the hypothetical example of a billionaire with a morbid sense of fun who offers $10 million per win to anyone who plays Russian roulette with his 6-shot pistol and survives.

That is, you’ll put the barrel to your head, pull the trigger, and 5 times out of 6, you’ll walk away with $10 million. 1 time out of 6, you’ll be carted away in a casket.

The upside here is tempting. If you win, you get a fair chunk of change.

On the other side, the downside knows no lower bounds. If you lose – if you’re unlucky and draw the barrel with the bullet – you’ll have made a very bad bet indeed.

Should you play, and if so, how many times should you play?

Stock trading is much like this – when the market is going up, which it generally is most of the time, you’ll be making small gains every day. But when the market goes down, it suddenly crashes by 20%, 30%, 40%, or more. What ends up happening is that you have a cyclical round of investment bankers who come in fresh out of graduate school, make a lot of money trading over a period of a few years, then crash, get wiped out of the market (due to leveraged positions, which allowed them to bet much more than they had), lose more money for their banks than they’d made in their entire tenure there, and wash out of i-banking.

Then, a new crop of i-bankers comes in, makes big bets on the market going up, rakes in loads of cash, until it too one day has a sudden crash where it loses more money than it made for its banks, and another batch of i-bankers washes out of the market and moves on to selling luxury cars to the latest generation of new investment bankers, presently awash with cash.

Asymmetric returns: lots of little favorable returns over time, and comparatively rarer, but far more massive, unfavorable ones.


Making Money Off of Asymmetry

What Taleb does, and how he makes money, is by doing the reverse of most investment bankers. Instead of betting that the market will go up, he bets that the market will go down.

Because the market usually goes up, this means that most of the time, his bets are wrong and he is losing money. But some of the time, the market crashes, and when this happens he makes far more than all his accumulated losses during the “good times.”

So why doesn’t everybody do this? Well, because of the way the brain handles loss.

You see, even with people trained to handle probability, the mind doesn’t properly weigh its wins and losses. A loss has a far greater penalty to our dispositions than a gain has benefits. I talked about the difference on your testosterone (and thus, motivation, assertiveness, confidence, and more) between winning and losing in the article on dominance and the winner effect; on average, 5 losses affect you a great deal more than 5 wins. As such, we as human beings are obsessed with “not losing”, at minimum to preserve our delicate hormonal balances.

Of course, if you’re playing to not lose, you’re not really playing to win now, are you?

Sure, people will tell you they’re playing to win. But the moment they start piling up losses in whatever they’re doing, the majority of individuals begin to panic, flail about, and start looking for the exit. How do they get out of losing territory, and back to winning? Usually by jumping onto the bandwagon and doing what everyone else is doing... which usually isn’t the best idea when your competition is, in fact, everyone else.

Further, as Taleb illustrates so well with his example of a conservative investor living next door to an investment banker on the upswing, it’s very hard to resist comparing oneself to others we know are probably following doomed strategies. One neighbor who played it safe in the markets and insulated himself from risk with a smaller house and only a few million in the bank felt pressure for years to be more like his grandiose next door neighbor, who always bet big and raked in lots of cash, eventually accumulating around 7 times the net worth of the conservative neighbor, along with many more expensive toys and a bigger, more ornate house. Until, that is, one day the extravagant neighbor crashed, lost everything, and in an instant, the conservative neighbor was far wealthier than his risk-taking neighbor.

The temptation in stock trading is to chase profit, because it feels emotionally good and appears to the brain to look like the “right path.” If you’re doing something that’s losing you money, for obvious reasons, most of the time, you’ll be out of money sooner or later. However, if you’re placing call and put options on stock to take advantage of outlier events – if you’re betting that at some point, any given stock may crash – that’s a different story, because you know what you’re doing... you’re just betting differently.

You don’t panic when the unexpected happens, like ordinary folk. That’s because your prospects are reversed; the expected for you is bad, while the unexpected for you is good.

Because the market goes up a little bit at a time most of the time, and drops a large amount on occasion, those working from leveraged positions betting it will go up see healthy gains while times are good, and get totally wiped out when the market crashes. Conversely, those working from leveraged positions betting it will go down see healthy losses while the market’s on the upswing, and get rained on with money when the market crashes.


The I-Bankers of the Dating World

95%+ of men out there play the dating game by betting they will win. They are so certain of their own inevitable victories that they plow colossal amounts of time and investment into a girl – one they’re hung up on and can’t stop thinking about – and gradually eke out small gain after small gain.

In their minds, they know they will get her. It’s destiny. They imagine the sex; the relationship; maybe the wedding and children. In fact, most women have a number of different men chasing after them at any given time, imagining all the same things, and all equally relatively certain that these women will recognize their special bond and these things will come to pass.

Until the market crashes of the dating game rear their ugly heads, that is.

That’s when the girl you’ve been “working on” for months and making gradual, steady progress – you thought – suddenly announces she has a boyfriend now, or that she really only likes you as “just friends.”

Suddenly – instantly – immediately – all that time and effort you’d plowed into inching your way toward success with this one girl is wiped out. The market’s crashed, and you’re back at zero, and you’ve got to go start all over again from nothing.

Sure, sometimes it works for a while – the guy gets a girlfriend, and all is good. But even then, because he isn’t living in an abundance mindset – which is all but impossible to have when you’re playing the dating game betting you will win on any specific girl – at some point, he begins to treat his girlfriend or wife as more and more precious to him. He places her on a pedestal. And the instant he does, his gradual gains in love, affection, and devotion from her over time begin to quickly sour, and before you know it, the relationship crashes.

She loses interest. Cheats on him. Breaks up with him, or divorces him.

asymmetric returns

And then he’s single all over again, back to zero, an emotional mess and wondering what happened.

Maybe he even becomes embittered about women and dating, and goes the way of the investment bankers who’ve washed out of trading and moved on to selling cars.

He probably hears about pickup at some point, but writes off learning to pick up girls; after all, he’d get so much rejection – it just doesn’t sound very pleasant.

Chasing after that one special girl of the moment seems like a far more promising investment of time, energy, money, and resources instead.


asymmetric returns

Probably one of the most jarring elements of the mentality taught on this site for most people is the underlying concept of, “You really have no total degree of control.” You can make yourself more likely to win with women by improving your fundamentals and learning game – indeed, these things make huge impacts in the returns you see – but you will never reach a point where you completely eliminate the probability of encountering outlier events – what Taleb calls “black swans” – in your dating and sex life.

Instead of running from this, the man who studies pickup embraces it. Like Taleb’s strategy with investing, the man who picks up women approaches women with an understanding of asymmetric distributions and returns: that is, when you’re picking up women, you’re going to encounter a lot of little losses, and the occasional BIG win.


Little and Lots

Anyone who’s learned to meet women on the street, in coffee shops, riding the train, at happy hour, at parties, in nightclubs, at networking events, on the beach, in shopping malls, or anywhere else out and about live in person can tell you how dramatically his life has changed and improved since learning how to do this.

So why do so few men do this?

This website gets 700K+ people visiting it a month. It’s not like the information isn’t out there. Yet, walk down a busy street in any town, every day for a month, and you may well never see a man walk up to a pretty girl and open her. You’ll be the only one doing it.

From a pure “benefits to his life” perspective, you’d think that most men would think, after enough failed relationships and go-nowhere fixations on girls, that it’s time they tried a different strategy – instead of focusing on one girl with only middling levels of commitment to them, how about they cast a wider net and see what they can pull in with it?

But they don’t.

The reason why is because picking up girls doesn’t feel like winning to most men, at least not starting out. It feels like losing. You go up and get rejection after rejection, trying to figure out this seduction thing and consistently coming up short.

Meanwhile, the guy who’s fixated on that one special girl, he’s getting a constant stream of “wins”: she texted him back; she told him he was cute; she agreed to go to a party with him. He’s winning!

Then the guy practicing pickup sleeps with some new girl he just met off the street.

Meanwhile, the guy fixated on the girl finds out she only sees him as a friend, and has another guy she’s sleeping with whom she respects far more as a man.

The guy practicing pickup gets a slight victory boost from his success, and then it’s back into the meat grinder of rejection after rejection.

The guy who spends his time chasing after women feels heartbroken for a while after putting so much effort into one girl and having it all fall apart... and then he meets another girl, and starts chasing after her, and begins to experience one “win” after another again, as he gradually makes “progress” on her.

That’s why most men never learn pickup. It isn’t because they can’t do it. It isn’t because they lack the faculties, the abilities, or some special x-factor.

Instead, it’s because chasing women just feels more rewarding, most of the time, than amassing rejections in the process of finding new women to sleep with and have relationships with.

Even though the type and magnitude of their black swan events – the guy chasing who loses the girl after so many small “gains”, and the guy picking up who sleeps with a girl after so many small “losses” – is so starkly different.


Capitalizing on Asymmetric Returns

Learning seduction is about learning to ignore the emotions that are the base of things like approach anxiety and hesitation / indecisiveness, and embrace asymmetric returns.

You see, your emotional brain would much rather you take the “safe” path – you know, not pushing too hard or moving too fast with that cute girl who likes you... just play it safe, so you don’t risk losing her. And don’t go amassing all those rejections, because what’s the point?

Just like the trader’s emotional brain would much rather he take the “safe” path – you know, not going against the grain, racking up one losing day after another, and betting that the market will crash when in fact it just keeps going up.

Of course, we know that logically, these are NOT the safe paths at all – the highly leveraged trader gets wiped out by a single black swan event, and the highly leveraged suitor gets wiped out by a single black swan event too – as detailed in the story of Pete, Jerry, and Sue.

The seducer is playing the game the same way the investor who bets on market crashes plays it – he’s playing to win by betting on losing in small amounts, most of the time, and counting on winning in large amounts, occasionally.

asymmetric returns

Your average man picks a girl, fixates on her, and dumps every ounce of energy he has into trying to woo her, convinced that this is his surest path to success.

Meanwhile, the seducer recognizes that there’s far too much outside of his control with any one girl:

  • There are other men in her life he doesn’t and can’t know about

  • Girls who only want attention flirt to get it, leading gullible men astray thinking they’re closing in on women who want them sexually/romantically when this is not the case

  • The smallest missed escalation window – which even he as an experienced seducer might not have picked up on for any reason – can lead to attraction expiring and all future effort put into a girl being a waste of time

  • Life can otherwise intervene at any time and destroy a promising-looking romance

... and that’s just with girls he already has “a shot” with. There are plenty more he has yet to meet who will turn him down flat because they just aren’t interested and don’t find him even a little appealing.

Yet, the seducer trains himself not to mind these small losses. Any time an individual girl rejects him on approach, or declines to give him her phone number when he asks, or flakes on a date, or doesn’t text him back, or refuses to sleep with him, or anything else, that doesn’t matter, because he’s already accepted that he’s going to spend most of the time having one small loss after another.

He endures these losses to get the big wins... the likes of which can become quite common for him, even as they are few and far between, and of much lesser magnitude, for the ordinary man.

Those are big wins ranging everywhere from a dream relationship with the girl of his dreams, to hot, impromptu sex in public places with some looker he’s just met. These things are more or less out of the reach of ordinary men, who settle into relationships they do their darnedest to convince themselves are with the “girls of their dreams” but really aren’t, and can only look on with envy or spite at those men pulling things off sexually with women that they cannot and never will.

That’s because the man who knows pickup lives his dating life accepting the asymmetric returns of the dating world – most of the time he will be rejected, flaked on, and otherwise unsuccessful with the women he approaches; however, some of the time he will land some really incredible girls, and have some really remarkable experiences.

Meanwhile, the ordinary man keeps himself safe, away from the small ongoing losses that are rejection, flaking, and girls not putting out, and instead devotes his time to a much smaller subset of women he spends his time fantasizing about and working hard to get, experiencing constant small “wins” whenever the girl he likes does something that makes him feel like he is “getting closer”, only to experience major losses when these girls up and vanish, or announce they’ve found a new boyfriend and are off the market.


The Mindset Difference

Focusing on the world of dating, sex, and relationships as one that presents a very asymmetric distribution of returns for everyone involved in it, and accepting that asymmetry, leads to a very large difference in mindset.

Thus, you see differences like this:

  • Ordinary man: “I can’t go talk to her – what if she rejects me?
  • Guy who picks up: “Who cares about that? You’ll never meet any women if you don’t go start piling up some rejections!”
  • Ordinary man: “I can’t make a move – what if she says no?
  • Guy who picks up: “Who cares about that? You’ll never make it out of neutral with any girl if you never make a move!”
  • Ordinary man: “I can’t try to sleep with her – what if she doesn’t want to?
  • Guy who picks up: “Who cares about that? You’re never going to find out if she DOES want to sleep with you if you don’t try to sleep with her!

The real core difference between the ordinary man and the guy who picks up is that the ordinary man sees this woman, right now as someone he needs immediate returns with, and had better not botch it with.

The man who picks up views things probabilistically, however. He knows that no matter what signs he’s reading, Girl X only has Y% chance of accepting him talking to her, making a move, or escalating to sex. But, he isn’t worried about the % chance of rejection – he knows he’s going to have to stomach some rejections to get to the successes. That’s just how it goes.

Similarly, the ordinary trader sees this trade, right now as a trade he needs to make money on, and had better not post a loss on today or this week.

The man who invests by betting the market will crash views things probabilistically, and knows that no matter how much data he reads on the stock market, Stock X has Y% chance of going up or down – he knows he’s going to have to stomach some money-losing days to get to the successes. That’s just how it goes.


Why Pickup Probably Won’t Stop Working

Every now and again, you’ll run across guys on pickup forums talking about “the end of pickup.” What they’re afraid of is that other men are going to discover the world of picking up and seducing women, and that the more men adopt it and dabble in it, the less effective its methods will be, as the sexual arms race between men and women continues, and women become inured to the tools and techniques of seduction.

Yet, we’re at a point now where pretty much everyone in the West is at least familiar with the school of modern seduction. Ask any of your friends what he thinks of “those pickup artists”, and he’ll have an opinion – and probably not a very good one. Just as Nassim Taleb discusses ordinary traders’ disdain for and dismissal of his black swan ways, ordinary men often have great disdain for those men who know what they’re doing with women.

The fact is, most people can’t stomach taking one small loss after another to get a BIG gain. They’d much rather stick to one small win after another, and tell themselves that each small win is edging them closer to an even LARGER win down the road.

Then, when they hit a crash, they’ll just shake their heads and say, “I don’t know what happened. It doesn’t make sense.”

But of course, it DOES make sense – when you realize that you’re operating with asymmetric returns. You can take a bunch of little losses and get some big wins, or you can take a bunch of little wins and get some big losses.

Because most men’s minds can’t make peace with the fact that the big wins you get ultimately far outweigh all the tiny losses you receive, the world is your oyster if you’re one of the few who’s capable of realizing and internalizing the difference.

Studying and practicing seduction is probably always going to offer a strong competitive edge to those select few men who embrace it – simply because most men, emotionally, just can’t.

They must go on playing the losing game of lots of little wins and occasional big losses... and leave the door wide open for any man who knows what he’s doing.

In other words... you.

Assuming you’re able to suck up the losses and not lose sight of the big picture, that is.

Yours,
Chase Amante

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Comments

Anonymous's picture

Great Read


Chase,

This article is great article! Definitely one of your better ones, with a lot of truth that takes guys who are used to viewing things through one specific perspective to a complete new one. Seeing things from outside the box, awesome awesome stuff.

"That’s why most men never learn pickup. It isn’t because they can’t do it. It isn’t because they lack the faculties, the abilities, or some special x-factor.

Instead, it’s because chasing women just feels more rewarding, most of the time, than amassing rejections in the process of finding new women to sleep with and have relationships with."

This hit home with me pretty damn well. I'm playing like a guy who is playing not to lose, rather than to win. Huge wakeup call to me that i have things wrong once again and shows just how much more I need to learn.

Thanks again for the article!

Anonymous's picture

Well put. But to each, his


Well put.

But to each, his own...

Sam2's picture

Cornerstone Article


Chase,

This is such a holistic, beautifully laid out piece of writing. It puts a very clear strategic choice at the hands of men who second-guess themselves, doubt, or lose heart in the face of adversity in their pick-up journey.

I would suggest you include it in the core reading section of this site.

Again, congratulations for writing such a masterpiece; truly inspiring!

Danny's picture

Characteristics of Girls who are Investment Bankers


Dear Chase,

I just have a quick question on gals who are I-bankers. Are those girls wife material? Are they promiscuous or loyal in general? Are they party gals? What is your experience and opinions on them?

I was hitting on one today.....the basic thing I know about them is that they are mostly (in general) from Ivy League Schools....that's all I know about them at this point. Also, I read about you articles on "Strong Indep Girls Vs Submissive Soft Gals" so I bet I-banker girls are strong and indep.

Also, the I-banker girl I was hitting on today has a very confident attitude, it feels like she is always in control. For example, I used the Direct Opener you taught me and I only noticed a light smile/smirk.....whereas if I do the same thing on those Foriegn Born Inexperienced Korean girls who are STILL IN COLLEGE and they will immediately have buttiflies. You can even see them cover their faces with their hands because their face is red/hot etc and they will start to giggle. I think that's a sign of inexperienced and NOT IN CONTROL. <-- Correct me if I am wrong.

Anyway, what's your experience on I-Bankers girls?

Thanks!

Chase Amante's picture

Female Investment Bankers

Author

Danny-

Assuming you mean the female analogue of the allegorical male investment bankers of the dating world from the article, correct? If that's what you meant, the "investment bankers of the dating world" are the ones who are overinvesting in one prospective (or one current) partner, in terms of hopes, dreams, expectations, other forms of investment, etc. These will tend to be the romantically and sexually inexperienced ones, not the experienced ones - and they will tend to be not in control, nervous, emotional, and the like.

If, however, you mean ACTUAL female investment bankers... I haven't met a whole lot of them (it's predominantly a male profession), but the few I have met have been, yes, extremely confident, self-assured, go-getter types. You have to be to succeed in a male-dominated profession, and especially one as high sexualized and aggressive and gung-ho as i-banking. Real-world female investment bankers I've known have been prone to flings and affairs with their highly-sexed colleagues and bosses, and usually tend to have nice guy mates that they can control with minimal distraction from their careers (and liaisons). Unless you like sharing, they're probably not great long-term material, though you probably will have a pretty great time with them!

Chase

Franco's picture

Amazing


God damn, this is good. This should be added to the "must read" article list for newcomers to the website.

I've already forwarded this article to a few friends.

Thanks, Chase!

- Franco

Eric Reeves's picture

This. This has to be one of


This.

This has to be one of chase's top posts of all times.

x2shotty's picture

Flop After First Date


Hey Chase,

I hope things are going well with you, brother. All's kosher on my end...

I am starting to get really good with my communicating from all of the advice on this site. I am meeting girls in person and online (trying to do both because I feel like the online stuff helps with things like text messaging, etc. Also, sometimes I don't have time to get out and meet as many women as I'd like. So, at least I get a lot of dates, which leads to more practice on dates, and so on, you get the picture). My game is there and often times, in the beginning, I seem to get girls engaged- A LOT. I am starting to pick up on right times to answer with a wise ass response, or a silly jab to deflect girls questions, and tease them a bit. So, all goes swell, and we schedule a date, and we meet up. Often times, we connect, and I am sure that you have seen this- where girls get that twinkle in their eye and you know you are in- you know what I am talking about! ;-) So, things start to get playful and touchy-feely. Things escalate and we make out... I know I am a great kisser and all that. So, I know I am not turning girls off there.... So, without writing a novel, here is the problem lol...

We hit things off- things are magical, and I GET IT... When escalation windows hit, I should try to close fast. BUT, sometimes the situation is just not conducive to closing THAT night. But girls just fall off and become flakey after that first date. I am getting pretty good at analyzing myself objectively and being honest with myself. So, I can usually pinpoint where I f*ck up. Here, I am clueless... I am thinking that one of two things is happening, but I would love your advice on this one.

a) I am getting really good at throwing this sexy vibe and being smooth. To the point where girls who wouldn't generally speed things up so quick are actually expecting me to close. Since, I don't, they are like "whoa, I guess Mr. smooth isn't so smooth after all."

b) I should be playful and teasing, but maybe hold off on making out and stuff. Get really close and intimate, but pull away. In other words, be extra sexy, but don't let her have anything yet. In lieu of moving fast, I should play a bit hard to get since the situation does not allow me to close. This way, the chase dynamic is set up with her still chasing me.

Any thoughts or comments would be great... Also, where do you guys coach out of, and how do I find more information on that?

x2shotty's picture

By the way


I forgot to mention. This article is brilliant!

Anonymous's picture

Flop After First Date


Hi,

this is a high-attraction problem. You don´t know it exists until you become sexy and seductive. The cause is - the escalation window opens wide, the woman wants you badly and at the same time, she has a slut complex. It means she avoids to be seen as a slut, I guess most women have this complex.
Such a woman expects you to lead the interaction to the point where "sex just happened", so she can feel like an innocent women seduced by you. Now, there are two possibilities, unfortunately with the same outcome.

1) You miss the escalation window completely. For her, you´re not the one she thought you were... or maybe you´re even rejecting her. So she goes into autorejection.
2) You catch the window, but cannot meet it. Your attitude is "I know you want me, sorry I cannot do it now, but we can meet next time". And she knows you know... I think this is your case. She doesn´t autoreject you outright and maybe will even agree with another date. However, she realizes that the possibility where "sex just happened" has been missed forever. In opposite, now she is expected to meet you for sex to happen. That makes her feel like a slut, her slut complex kicks in, you make her feel bad about herself and her best solution is to autoreject you.

You can only prevent this situation. If you don´t have logistics, you must set limits. For example tell her that you have only time for a coffee. Or you don´t escalate. However, you risk being friend-zoned. Once the "I want you now" escalation window opens and you cannot act upon it, I think it´s lost. And in my experience, sometimes the escalation window opens during normal conversation. It happens to me too and it´s a very painful situation, bro. The paradox is - if you weren´t so attractive, you would have a normal date, then meet again and have sex then.

x2shotty's picture

Thanks Anon


Thanks Anon- that at least makes me feel better lol

Chase Amante's picture

Cresting Too Early

Author

x2-

Anon hit it in his reply. If you want a more intuitive way of thinking about it, imagine watching a movie in the cinema, where things really start peaking emotionally, and you're 90% of the way through the film, the ending's already started happening, and then the lights come on and the film stops rolling and they announce that there's something wrong with the film and you're going to have to come back to see the ending another day.

So, a few days later, the cinema sends you a text and lets you know if you want to come back and watch the movie again, and with the full ending this time, you can. Do you?

Maybe if it was the best movie you've ever seen in your life, you might. Usually, you'll just have figured out what the ending was, and now you've got sort of a bad taste in your mouth because you know what the ending probably is, but you didn't get to have the emotional satisfaction of enjoying it once the film had primed you to receive it.

If you want to do things over the course of multiple dates, you cannot peak too early on those dates, otherwise you have this effect.

Instead, treat the dates like a 2-parter or a 3-parter in a movie series... there needs to be a cliffhanger at the end with her wondering what comes next. Maybe she THINKS she knows, but there's enough intrigue and mystery and uncertainty that she really just doesn't.

Read this article (or re-read it, with this problem in mind, if you've already read it) on this: "Emotional Cresting: What It Is and How to Use It."

You should not be making out with women until you are RIGHT about to sleep with them. Kissing is the commencement of sex. Cutting off the escalation once you've already started kissing is like killing the movie once the ending's begun. It just leaves a bad taste in her mouth. The exception is here: "How to Kiss Girls in Public and Have It Go Great."

Normally though, yes - don't kiss until you're alone with her and ready for sex; don't commence the "end of the movie" if you're going to kick her out of the theater midway through. If you can't close on a given date, be intriguing, and be sexy, but don't ratchet it up too far. Leave that for the date you'll close things out on.

Chase

Michael (from the boards)'s picture

Amazon link to book


Hey Chase

You should consider using an Amazon affiliate link for the book you recommended (Fooled by Randomness). It's an easy way for you to make money, and it's better for us because we just have to click on a link instead of doing a google search.

Chase Amante's picture

Re: Amazon link to book

Author

Michael-

Thanks for the feedback - just placed an Amazon link around the book title, no affiliate.

We used to use Amazon and other affiliate links, but it just adds very little to the bottom line, and kind of cheapens the brand / objectivity of the message... I'm planning to have us go back and remove affiliate links while just leaving in the original links at some point.

But you're right - for people who want to buy, it's easier to just have the link. Link added.

Chase

Jake's picture

Absolutely loved this post,


Absolutely loved this post, Chase. Very well-written, informative, and was a straight shot in terms of understanding asymmetrical returns in regards to women

Anonymous's picture

stirs up another analogy


Hey chase,
Brilliant article, apart from your dating advice i would definitely acknowledge your creative and writing skills. Witty scribble buddy!!!
That stirs up another analogy in my mind for all those who cant stop thinking about that girl and feel dejected when a girl rejects them . Now instead of them being a market consider you as newly enrolled company at the stock market . You are a new small company so probably dont have much assets or market cap. (lets say your fitness or bodylanguage are your poor assets and your game your market cap ;)) .Considering this most of the people want buy you or your shares because they dont see the future. They only take what is obvious, they are going for the obvious victory company whose share are already maxed out. A guy with game ;)) Whereas there comes one customer who knows its sometimes really profitable to invest in these small firms because if the gamble pays off the rewards are usually huge. But this rarely happens . What you as a company do is keep working your ass off to get your fundamentals right to get your assets to increase and your skill with women improve. And one day you are big and you look back and laugh at all those customers who didnt invest in you and all they can do when you have complete abundance and you have dated a horde of hot girls is to fantasize you romping their brains out, because now they know you just cost a little too much for them ;)

Chase Amante's picture

Business on an Upward Trajectory

Author

Anon-

Good analogy, for anyone remotely familiar with business-building. Same as girls - unless you've got the gift of gab or another strong suit starting out, pretty tough time raising funds, getting investors, and finding believers. But if you slog away at it, there comes a time when you look back and realize you're now a hot commodity, and all those people you were praying for "in"s with are small potatoes by comparison.

You always think when you're small that you'll look back spitefully on them once you're big, but when you get there, you're more just reflective, then shrug, then get back to enjoying the pleasures of being a success.

Chase

Anonymous's picture

x2shotty


I used to have this dilemma myself and I've found the answer. I'm assuming you're making out with them on the date and not back at your place. This is what I used to do too and got a lot of flakeyness next time I tried to set up date 2 because in their minds they know whats next and they really get time to over think it and usually get scared away.

Now I never kiss them while we're out, only play a dominant touching, leading game at the appropriate times and if I get good feedback from it I invite them over. Usually once they get back to my place they're so ready to go they start kissing me on their own and just escalate very gradually from there to bed. Hope this helps, peace.

x2shotty's picture

Thanks


Hey Anon,

This is what I was figuring. However, what if it doesn't pan out that way and she just doesn't come home? do you still refrain from sending her off with a kiss? i don't know what to do if she won't come over.... it's killing me. I get these dates with amazing women, and then sh*t just falls off. I am wondering if I am doing something else wrong, too.

Thanks,
S

Chase Amante's picture

Where Dates are Going Wrong

Author

x2-

I might suggest hopping on the boards and writing field reports about your dates on the Field Reports Board.

Going back and analyzing every detail helps tremendously with nailing down what you're doing wrong, and you'll tend to get useful feedback from other guys too, pointing out things you didn't even realize you could do differently.

Chase

Topcat's picture

Paradigm Shift


In agreeance with the others Chase, this has got to be one of the best articles on the site. It definitely shifted my mental model a huge deal.

I'm ever greatful for the work you do on here, this cannot be stressed enough.

Topcat.

Bassman's picture

Constant Inspiration


This is GOLD!

Thanks again chase for taking the time and effort to write such great articles. Keeping all of use space monkeys inspired and motivated to become real men. Thank you for the advice back in my early days on your site as well. You have great things coming to you in the future with all this awesome work you are putting out!

Peace

Nuncle's picture

A shot in the arm


Chase, you are certainly a tonic for someone who, despite being an avid follower of this site's philosophy, has still managed to come down with a bad case of one-itis (and then spectacularly **** it up!)

Bob's picture

another incredible article.


another incredible article. Well said.

Rolondo's picture

Epiphany


This article was opened my eyes to alot - best foundational article.

Thanks

Yink's picture

Spotting A Virgin!!!


Hi Chase,great article once again,however I do have a question for you:how can you know if a girl is a virgin without having to ask her?,I ask this question because my last relationship was with a virgin who I had to wait for a LONG time before having sex with and I want to avoid that kind of situation repeating itself.I'd rather spend my time on a girl who has already been disvirgined but has very few sex partners(1or 2) than invest months trying to convince a girl to disvirgin her.

Chase Amante's picture

Re: Spotting A Virgin!!!

Author

Yink-

Aside from checking for a hymen (and even that's not foolproof - some girls lose theirs playing sports, some girls never have them, and some girls retain a fair amount of theirs even after a few partners; in Asia, there's even a trend of getting hymen reconstruction surgery prior to marriage), there's not really a way other than asking a girl outright and doing your best to discern whether she's telling the truth or not.

If you want to weed out virgins though, just start talking about sex and sexual experiences. If she gets really uncomfortable, and can't share any of her own, chances are she's not what you're looking for in terms of a sex partner.

Chase

Wout's picture

Overly aggressive an an aggressive environment


Hi Chase,

Do you have any articles about the fact of being too aggressive and how can you act the best in an aggressive environment?

Last night I got a 90-95% rejection rate (with some pretty harsh rejections too) which I believe came from the fact that I was too aggressive (which a friend told me), came over as trying too hard (reading an article about that right now) and because of the environment which was also pretty aggressive (everyone was pushing each other in the over-packed dance floor, girls having huge walls, everyone felt superior than each other, etc).

Cheers,

-Wout

Chase Amante's picture

Being Over-Aggressive

Author

Wout-

The only real problem with being overly aggressive is when you're so aggressive that you start seeming unattainable (in terms of a girl being able to attain your respect... not necessarily in terms of her being able to attain you as, say, a sex partner). I do need to get one up specifically on being overly aggressive itself, and how to tackle it; the best articles to review on that one for now are the ones on auto-rejection and teasing (which talks quite a bit about not pushing girls too far - a way of getting over-aggressive with teasing). I might also recommend the one on humbleness.

Being overly aggressive is usually not a bad problem to have, because it's easier to scale back from being too aggressive than it is to ramp up to being more aggressive if you're not currently aggressive enough. The easiest way to scale back is to keep doing what you're doing, but try being a little bit "softer" or "sweeter" while you do it - a bit warmer of a smile, a bit more welcoming in your motions, a bit more romantic and lustful in your eye contact. If that's still not enough, then try adding a few smaller steps into your interactions, like starting out asking for smaller bits of compliance than you usually ask for to throw a few more steps onto your compliance ladder, so you're not asking for too much too soon.

Chase

Anonymous's picture

Great article but there is a BUT...


I want to say that I used to hate rejection and now I can say that I hate losing ALL the time especially, if the price if it is a BIG win. I am one of those guys that just isn't smooth or like doesn't light it up for women. The only way I do it is to stand up straight and keep my mouth shut and pray for luck. I understand totally losing small to win BIG. I figured it out when I went to Barcelona, I went to salsa place and I got rejected more then any guy in the room for nights after nights. Funny thing I am not a dick head asshole or a complete imbecile, in fact am polite and complimentary, not ass kisser either but I get awkward pretty easily and I am shy. I understood in Spain the idea that it is ok to get rejected if you won a nice win every once in a while it is SOOOO worth it. But, that ended few times because in knows how many women that rejected me lets say there where like 3 that stood out and one REALLY STOOD OUT. The problem is that I got rejected by the 3 and the one that said yes it wasn't much before she went in with another guy. I can't tell how many times I have seen that when I put my eyes on a woman she will be in the arms of an other man sooner or later and this is why it become really hard to do something about it. You can't stand being a LOSER and Being UNDESIRED ALL THE TIME. Because, lets face it there is always someone a lot better. One other question that I would REALLY appreciate if you answer it. What if you are a guy who is not passionate or talented, I mean you are a guy with likes and hobbies and disciplines but not PASSIONATE. Can you still get your way with women.

Chase Amante's picture

Losing a Lot and Not Being Passionate

Author

Anon-

I haven't traveled to Spain yet, but I consistently hear that it is one of the hardest places to meet women out there, period. I'd like to get there at some point just to see if everything I keep hearing it true.

First recommendation I'd have is study the other guys who are doing better with women than you and see what the differences are, focused primarily on their actions and nonverbals, as well as things like clothes, hairstyle, etc. What are they doing that you are not doing? What do they have with their appearance that you can emulate? Even if you feel silly doing so - try it out regardless.

Re: passion, this is something you can learn to emulate. I'm a pretty dispassionate person by nature, but I spent a long time focusing on having very piercing eye contact and a facial expression that made people feel instantly warm and familiar and emotionally aroused around me, and now I just have to look at a girl to have her getting nervous and excited. That's 100% learnable - mostly by imitating actors, politicians, friends, etc. who are already doing this - and it's easy to learn to convey passion once you can do that and once you've also become good at telling stories about your exploits (another skill that takes some time - though see this article).

Mainly, it seems like what you need right now is to start emulating men who are doing what you want to do and seeing the results you want to see.

Chase

Anonymous's picture

Thanks for the reply this is extra feedback


Still very hard. I actually have observed and paid attention to guys who are like what you say. I dress quite alright, the way I dress shouldn't be a barrier. I do lots of strength training and I always look in the mirror to check my eye contact, facial expressions and body language, the straight back, chest puffed out all while trying to remain relaxed. Still there is an X factor that just isn't there. I do dancing and I think I move fairly nice. My story telling and conversation skills are really dead. I mean I can talk to women but can't get them excited nor interested. Funny story even the very beautiful sexy women don't intimidate me this much it is just that I can't compete with the other guys that hit on them and they reject me nearly on site. I also look women in the eye and I don't stare, but what is the point of looking them in the eye if you are boring (Not interesting, if they don't look you back or just see you as a friend). Actually, when I look in the mirror I see something is missing but I have no idea how to fix it. Sorry for bothering. But, anyway even if you don't reply, I appreciate your site and that you give time to your readers. And you have some golden points anyway.

Anonymous's picture

One more thing...GO TO SPAIN


Off topic but if you haven't been to Spain then you have too. The country is full of attractions. Barcelona is Gorgeous and full of beautiful architect. The South has lots of muslim-christian history and Franco might have added his touch in some cities. Flamengo dances, beautiful mountains and music and food. Bit conservative people and some pickpocketers but oh well. I also suggest that if you go there not to have a short trip. Stay atleast for a month and have a round trip if you can.

PS. I am not from Spain.

Colt Williams's picture

This is the Best Article on GirlsChase


I have to echo the comments that everyone has been making. If there's one article that any guy -- newcomer to master -- should read, it's this one.

Chase has written a lot of incredible pieces, but I think this one is a cut above. To all the readers out there, in the words of Biggie, "relax and take notes."

-Colt

Marty's picture

All of this is true...


Chase:

I'm not surprised to read so many positive comments above, including remarks from your leadership team like Franco and Reeves saying that this falls under the all-time top articles list.

What you expressed so forcefully and skilfully is all true... and I'd add, as you've mentioned elsewhere, that there are two additional benefits to regular cold approach besides the statistical argument:

1. You get credit just for trying... differentiating yourself from the competition;

2. You get better at it with more practice.

In my case, point #1 is illustrated by the fact that the 2nd-ever woman I cold-approached accepted an instant date proposal; point #2 by the reaction of the 158th and 159th women I approached who, despite being attached, received me with nothing short of utter delight.

-Marty

340Breeze's picture

Glad to see the analogy between the market and seduction


This is a cornerstone piece.

Glad to see the analogy made between the market and seduction... If one studies the process that led to the success of many innovative companies, we see that they embed "deliberate failure" into their business model and process. They know they will fail more often than they succeed. Playing to win is the paramount action that any winner must do. Playing not to lose is for those who don't want to dominate.

However, failure is inevitable and it is random and we cannot control it. People fear what they cannot control and maybe that's a reason why so many people play not to lose. But the thing is, as you have said over and over, the more often we act with intent/purpose (and fail) is the more often we will succeed. I read somewhere that Edison created thousands of prototypes, but only a few were ever true stars. This ties in to the phenomenon you wrote about "Events vs. Process" Most people only ever see/pay attention to/value the successes, but they don't see the hidden process that's in place to deal with the inevitable losses/failures. Alot of people think that success is effortless, but it's not at all. Failure is real.

Sochiro Honda said it best:

Success represents the 1% of your work which results from the 99% that is called failure.

Paramount article.

Cheers,

340Breeze.

Torus's picture

cognitive biases


Hi Chase,
I can confirm that this shift in mindset is tremendously helpful. And it get easier with time: once you had a few big wins, you start to feel the greater picture, the small loses just become stepping stones.
This shift in mindset was so powerful, that I started to apply it towards my life mission: often scary, but it has already send me down unusual but rewarding paths. :)

Anyway, in case you did not know:
This thinking mistake is the cognitive biases described in "prospect theory" with quite some research behind it.
It describes that humans value 2 gains of X higher than 1 gain of 2X. And 2 loses of X are worse than a loss of 2X.
Also a gain of X feels less good than a loss of X feels bad.

This explains so many bad decisions everywhere, you gave great examples.
But I want to add there is a good evolutionary reason why humans tend to think like that. In many situations this heuristic makes sense. That 2X does not feel 2 times as good as X. Just imagine you are hungry and see a pig running through the forest, you would probably value it highly and invest in the hunt. If on the other hand you just caught that pig and started eating it, you would not to feel a similar urge to pursue a similar second pig running by.

Anyway, I learned a lot about cognitive biases and are even teaching people how to avoid them, so tell me if you are interested to hear more.

Chase Amante's picture

Re: cognitive biases

Author

Torus-

Cognitive biases are a fascinating subject area, indeed. And you keep coming across more and varied examples of them.

I'm not sure I follow the pig example as one of the 2X vs. 1X + 1X bias. Wouldn't that be something more like catching two little pigs would be more satisfying than catching one really big pig with as much meat as those two little pigs combined, and failing to catch both of those two little pigs stings worse than missing out on just that one big pig?

Anyway, it's a neat topic, and also neat exploring why the brain retains the (often very large) biases it does.

Chase

Patrick Dugan's picture

Investment Strategies


I'm trading cryptocurrency full-time and am also a "technician level" student of the game, by your own site's questionnaire assessment. I just wanted to note that maybe a better metaphor would have been trading for opportunistic gains, not getting married to a position or a belief about the future, and accepting small losses to catch a market reversal - the Nassim Taleb strategy of buying deep-out premium and waiting has been somewhat discredited and his hedge fund has lost money for the past 5 years. Maybe 2014 is the year that he gets 2008-esque returns but I'd have shorter intervals between wins. The guys going long-only US equities are definitely akin to the chumps marrying away half their net worth and chasing bad prospects.

Chase Amante's picture

Re: Investment Strategies

Author

Patrick-

I'm not nearly enough of an expert on stock trading that I could say with any certainty that "this model is better than that model." I will say that Taleb's investment model is based on losing small amounts for long periods of time in anticipation of enjoying black swan events every once in a while - e.g., I believe he said his system is designed to be able to lose money for 10 years if necessary in order to enjoy a single black swan event. I'd expect he would lose money for long periods of time, yes - long periods of famine, and then the occasional superabundance of feast. But, perhaps there's some other flaw in his setup - I don't know how much he loses on his losses and how much he gains on his wins, and if he doesn't capture enough upside during market crashes and other outliers to make up for the accumulated losses he takes during normal times, the model will indeed not survive.

I'm not clear enough on what you mean by trading for opportunistic gains - whether you mean trying to time the market, like a day trader does (most of whom lose far more money than they ever make), or buying and holding strategically in assets you understand inside and out, like Warren Buffet (who makes very solid returns over time)? There are a number of interesting strategic considerations in investing, with many that look like big winners eventually ending up losers, many that look like losers eventually ending up winners, and some that are just roller-coaster rides that continually alternate between winning and losing until you get off the ride. It's an interesting rabbit hole to go down... but one that's ultimately a little too much like gambling for my own taste ;)

Chase

Anonymous's picture

Kiss anxiety/escalation anxiety


Dear Chase,
Thanks again for an amazing article which always helps me. I am able to overcome my approach anxiety, but it still feels awkward. I know it will come with time. Although I am overcoming approach anxiety and I can get them alone and touch and shit. I get anxious when it gets time to close and am unable to do it with confidence and fast. I have a hard time manhandling and doing the really hot stuff like pushing women against walls. After I get that first kiss or first approach I do a lot better but getting there is hard and I sometimes lose girls cuz of it especially if I am tired. It sometimes feel really awkward and some girls don't tolerate it and it is a turn off. I don't know what to do. I have to work myself up before I can do it. Any advice?

Chase Amante's picture

Re: Kiss anxiety/escalation anxiety

Author

Anon-

Don't worry about manhandle kisses, wall slams, or other aggressive escalations for now. Those are for more experienced seducers - when you're comfortable with kissing and escalating overall, you'll be able to do these without worrying about them.

For now, just focus on keeping things simple - just kiss, and use time limits. Force yourself to kiss her, or kick her out, by a certain time. That will get you taking action. And if you kick some girl out because you're too scared to kiss her, you'll get so mad at yourself that you'll probably never skip kissing a girl ever again.

Chase

Dogan's picture

Chase


Hi chase, for a long time I have been a loyal follower and admirer of you and your articles, I want to be your member and log in your site as member. You know your site is access-free, there is no restriction, But I want to pay some money ( Of course I know you needn't my money :-) ), But I couldn't find a choise That sings 'only one time payment' İf I read wrong please correct me and text me back

Chase Amante's picture

Subscribing

Author

Dogan-

Yes, that's right - there's no one-time payment for site access. The closest is the annual membership plan, which is a once-per-year payment of $197.40 - more details here.

I suppose we could always do a "Lifetime Membership" plan for $350 or so, that would be a one-time payment and simply never expire, though I'm not sure if there's demand for that. If you or anyone else want a plan like that though, reply to this comment and I'll see if that's something we can put together.

Chase

Dale's picture

Trying Many


A foundation stone, but not enough. I always tried to be working on severla women at a time, but knew nothing of escalation windows and auto-rejection (which I always saw as rejection). Wasted years and numerous opportunities. Several times I was dating 3 women who wanted me and I did manage to close any of them. I often recommend your site to single men, too bad it wasn't available back then.

Anonymous's picture

BEING A CHALLENGE THROUGH TEXT


If she sees me as being too easy through text, how do you go about being challenging again, do i ignore her, or try and get her investing in another way.

If i keep texting her to try and revert the situation am i not seen as investing too much still?

Sorry to post this on another thread but i'm searching for an answer here.

Chase Amante's picture

Texting

Author

Anon-

If you're trying to be a challenge through texting, you've probably been using texting wrong. You should be aiming to be an interesting, sufficiently-challenging person in person, and use text purely for setting up dates with women who are already interested in you. You really can't salvage an interaction that went badly in person via text (well, sometimes you can, but it's usually so time consuming, tricky, and hit-or-miss to do that you're much, much better off focusing on leveling up your game in person, and using text for logistics).

See this article for a more nuanced understanding of what I'm talking about here, and why the "be a challenge via text" avenue is usually not one very conducive to lining up dates: "How to Text Girls: 20 More Tips and Techniques."

Chase

Anonymous's picture

How important is friendship?


How important is friendship? I know you said there are two kinds of love but is compassion really that important? Obviously you and the girl can't hate eachother but how much of friends do you need to be? It seems like the best position for a guy to be in is when he is clearly dominant or "one up" on the girl and the girl is submissive. Otherwise the relationship often falls apart, whether it's due to a lack of sexual attraction (from the girl) or something else. It's possible that different people want different things in a relationship too, but is there a way things "should" be based on your knowledge? I guess there are always two schools of thought, one that believes in evolutionary ideas and the other that is not scientific. The problem is you could find evidence supporting or disproving each school, and it makes me wonder if there's any truth to anything or if maybe for that reason I should just go for what produces results whether it's true or not.

Sorry I just opened up a bag of worms for any religion based discussion.

Chase Amante's picture

Compassionate Love

Author

Anon-

That's an interesting question. It's hard to say. Compassionate love is something people more or less develop automatically with the progression of relationships... it's pretty hard to avoid. In fact, I don't know if I've ever seen a long-term relationship without it.

I'm assuming you're talking about long-term relationships (for short-term or less, you don't really need compassion - you can take it or leave it, depending on the nation of the relationship you're looking to have). The question would really boil down to "Could you have a long-term relationship with someone you didn't care about?" Like, if she was happy or sad, you wouldn't really care... if her life sucked or was amazing, either way you'd shrug your shoulders. It seems like even low/no empathy individuals develop some degree of compassion and attachment to those they have longer-term relationships with, so this might be something that's just an endemic part of having relationships with other people.

Chase

Lukas's picture

Great article! It´s actually


Great article!

It´s actually funny how many pickup systems claim that you can get any woman and that attraction is everything. I think many men buy into it, only to end up frustrated. Truth is, if odds are against you, you´re likely to lose any woman. The only solution to improve the odds is to move fast and meet more women. Don´t concentrate on a woman until she´s yours. I know it´s a superficial approach, but believe me, women are just as superficial.

I´d like to add some common cases where you have no control and will lose the woman, even if she was very attracted.
- your first meeting was an extraordinary event for her and she has fear of dating you
- you can see a critical escalation window but cannot meet it due to logistics, time etc
- your and her schedules differ so much that until you arrange 2nd/3rd date, her attraction expires
- another man has compatible schedule with hers and is faster than you even if she was more attracted to you at start
- there are events in her life that distract her from you and make her attraction expire even more quickly
- she´s a woman who never texts, never calls and seldom accepts calls, so you either kind of chase her, or attraction expires
- she plays very cool and confident, but when you act upon it, she will freak out and run

Lukas

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