I looked up your article as this topic has been one I have struggled with understanding for a couple of years.
I love your material because it generally deals with topics in a much more nuanced and sophisticated manner than other manosphere sites, but in this case you have made it seem black and white which I believe it really isn't.
The age of the women and other socio economic and ethnic factors may come into play, much like most things with women you rarely can use a one size fits all approach.
My evidence which is with maybe a few dozen women(not a huge sample) is that for most of them it really doesn't matter either way. If she offers to pay I let her, if she wants to split do that (or just offer to pay if really cheap), if I have paid in the past and I notice a women doesn't even look at the bill I will tell her she can get the next one. The next round of drinks or the next dinner or whatever. The point is not to make a big deal about it, similar to a shit test.
Women over 30 in my circles heavily expect a man to pay on first dates, it may be that they all are looking for a provider but they will be genuinely offended if you don't as that is what they are used to. The ones that don't mind will readily offer to pay or split. Sometimes I just leave the bill on the table for a couple of minutes to see if she looks at it or offers. If she doesn't and it happens more than once or twice that is a major red flag for me and I will tell her she can get the next one. Since I like to venue hop on dates there is usually another check later on in the night.
I haven't found any correlation to whether I pay or not to the chances of having sex. The chances of sex are heavily dependent on other things like how far I escalate physically, logistics, her age, and her general attitude about sex.
The only thing I can say with certainty is having a disagreement over who pays the check could sour a date if not handled well, so I would say for novices its better just to go on less expensive dates and expect to pay.
Since 50% of your dates lead to sex and you believe paying hurts your chances your results could be just confirmation bias. If not paying takes you out of the role of "winning and impressing her" and is congruent with your behavior throughout than this attitude and behavior is expected and attractive.
If however, you are like most guys who are implicitly or explicitly trying to make sure their date is led to a good time and attracted to you, pulling out the unexpected "You Pay" would be incongruent with the rest of their behavior and may not be received well at all.
What this article is missing is how you act and what you say when the bill arrives to get her to pay or split. Without that I think this advice is dangerous and may hurt more than it helps.