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lucio's picture


I always like to hear your opinion as a balanced and rational guy, and you usually deliver in both areas.

A few points I disagreed with, or where I think better information is useful:

1. The heat and huminidy might slow down a bit the spread, but its not likely to make a big dent.

2. In the Philippines it's only the Manila area that makes the news. Other areas are not cracking down nearly as much (Cebu)

3. You can't compare Italy's reported cases with the Philippines, because Italy did a lot of tests. The Philippines barely did any. It didn't even have any tests to run, for a long time (only now it received some as international gifts. The difference on the number of cases is in large part based on how much countries are testing their citizens. Few tests = (mistaken) assumption that the phenomenon is limited, while the reality is anyone's guesses.

4. The real risk, even for healhtier folks, are swamped hospitals. You might have needed a hospital bed or some oxygen and did fine. But if the hospitals are swamped, it might get really serious. The downsides can't be properly covered with swapeed hospitals.
This is an important thing to keep in mind. When the curve is going up, even healthy people can make a rational choice to stay home.

All the rest, great as usual.