Even though I agree with most of your thoughts I disagree when it comes to dumb guys. As you said a hot dumb guy would still beat a nerd, but a dumb guy, without looks, would just slightly be more succesful than a nerd, or let us say he would only bang women who are a 5 at best. It's the looks that changes the game. If Sheldon Cooper looked like Pennys ex then he would score a lot, even though he is a nerd cause women would throw themselves at him anyway. If Sheldon wasn't a nerd but a dumb guy only, then again he would slightly be more succesful than his real him, because he would have more time chasing and approaching women.